The 3x3 framework produces analyses on real systems. This section hosts the deep worked examples — the structural model, the trajectory forecast, the inflection detection, and the scenarios.
These are not client engagements. They are the methodology applied to consequential, contemporary questions, in the open, with explicit confidence bounds. They are the most concrete demonstrations we can offer of what the framework sees and what it does not.
For the methodology in plain English, see The 3x3 framework, explained →. For shorter case studies framed as strategic scenarios, see Case studies →. For the methodology applied to a perceptual task, see Articles →.
SpaceX (June 2026 IPO)
A real-time application of the framework to SpaceX’s pending IPO. The analysis decomposes the company into three business lines at three different states of maturity (Starlink, Starship, AI), identifies seven sequential unproven dependencies on which the $1.75T valuation sits, models three scenarios with probability weights, and produces a probability-weighted expected value of ~$725-925B against the IPO price. The IPO itself is the primary irreversible event: once priced, the gap between expected value and market price will be tested quarter by quarter.
Global food system (2026-2050)
A 25-year model of the global food production, logistics, and trade system. The framework detects a structural inflection at Q4 2029 (70% confidence) driven by automation-IP lockup, geopolitical chokepoints, and climate-glacier feedbacks. The Singapore sub-analysis is a worked example of how a global finding translates to a specific actor.
How to read an analysis
A worked example is dense by design. The framework’s output is a structured reading across multiple dimensions — the trajectory forecast, the inflection detection, the scenario set. The output is not a single number.
When reading an analysis, three things to look for:
- The dominant patterns. A system is rarely one thing. The framework decomposes it into its dominant patterns. Each pattern has a maturity stage. The mismatch between maturity stages is usually where the interesting findings live.
- The inflections. An inflection is a structural turning point — the moment when the system transitions from one stable configuration to another. The framework detects inflections by looking at the curvature that precedes them. On short horizons (markets, supply chains), inflections appear 30 to 90 days ahead. On long horizons (climate, geopolitics), they appear years ahead.
- The probability-weighted expected value. The framework does not produce a single forecast. It produces a set of scenarios with probability weights and an expected value. The expected value is rarely the most likely outcome — it is the center of mass of the scenario distribution. The gap between the expected value and the market price is the framework’s structural claim.
If you would like the methodology applied to a question of your own, get in touch →.