The AI Roaring 20s
My simple model for how AI roles out is:
- 20’s will be the time of AI exploration, experimentation and learning.
- 30’s will be the time of AI adoption. Businesses will be human centric while business functions augment with AI.
- 40’s will be the time of AI transformation. Businesses will be AI centric while humans act in a peripheral role.
- 50’s will be the time of AI. AI will be the dominant force in the world. Humans will have to find their new role.
- 2060s
Does AI lead to a technological, employemnt, and social transformation in the 2020s? Yes the 2020s will be the AI Roaring 20s. As the 1920s were a time of great economic growth and social change. The 2020s will be a time of great economic growth and social change, driven by AI.
Here are some of the ways AI is expected to affect companies and the economy from 2023 to 2030:
2023
Focusing is on learning and exploring the technology. A few exploraritory examples start to gain use. A few news stories about people losing their jobs. Many more people end up performing better on their jobs because they secretly are relying on AI tools to do their job better. Increased automation starts displacing jobs in some sectors like manufacturing and transportation. This leads to job losses but also productivity gains. Overall economic impact is modest.
- Investors try to invest in companies that are AI related or have AI plans
- AI will begin to automate more and more tasks in the workplace, leading to job losses in some sectors.
- AI-powered tools will become more widely available, making it easier for companies to adopt AI-based solutions.
- AI will be used to develop new products and services, creating new opportunities for businesses.
AI begins to significantly impact jobs and the economy. Productivity gains but also some job losses, especially in areas like manufacturing and transportation. Overall impact still modest.
2024
AI becomes part of every technology product and service. More companies adopt AI for tasks like customer service chatbots and predictive analytics. This creates some new jobs in tech but also causes further job displacement in certain routine occupations.
- Flood of “AI” solutions hit tha market. Some are effective and some are not. Many don’t really use AI.
- Increasingly there are news stories about people losing their job, but most people are just finding that AI helps them do their jobs better.
- AI backlash - lots of news stories about AI failures
- AI will become more sophisticated, enabling it to perform more complex tasks.
- AI will be used to improve efficiency and productivity in a wider range of industries.
- AI will be used to develop new marketing and sales strategies, helping businesses to reach new customers.
AI is widely adopted and used by companies for things like customer service, predictive analytics, etc. This creates some new tech jobs but also causes more job displacement. AI used to develop new products and services.
- AI will become more pervasive in our lives. We will see AI-powered devices and services in more and more places, from our homes to our workplaces to our cars. This will have a significant impact on the way we live and work.
- AI will continue to displace jobs. As AI becomes more sophisticated, it will be able to automate more and more tasks that are currently done by humans. This could lead to widespread job losses, particularly in low-wage and routine occupations.
- AI will create new jobs. However, AI will also create new jobs, particularly in the tech sector. These jobs will require new skills and knowledge, so it is important that we start preparing for the AI-driven workforce of the future.
- AI will have a major impact on education. AI can be used to personalize learning, provide feedback, and assess student progress. This could revolutionize the way we teach and learn.
- AI will have a major impact on healthcare. AI can be used to diagnose diseases, develop new treatments, and provide personalized care. This could revolutionize the way we deliver healthcare.
- AI will have a major impact on our social lives. AI-powered chatbots and social media platforms could change the way we interact with each other. This could have both positive and negative consequences.
Overall, the impact of AI on people and society in 2024 will be profound. It is important that we start thinking about how we can prepare for this future and ensure that AI benefits everyone.
Here are some specific examples of how AI will impact people and society in 2024:
- AI-powered customer service chatbots will become more common. These chatbots will be able to answer customer questions and resolve issues without the need for human intervention. This will free up customer service representatives to focus on more complex tasks.
- AI-powered predictive analytics will be used to improve decision-making. For example, AI can be used to predict customer churn, identify fraud, and optimize product recommendations. This will help businesses to make better decisions and improve their bottom line.
- AI-powered medical diagnosis will become more accurate. AI can be used to analyze medical images and data to identify diseases earlier and more accurately than ever before. This could save lives and improve the quality of care.
- AI-powered personalized learning will become more widespread. AI can be used to tailor educational content to each student’s individual needs. This could help to improve student achievement and close the achievement gap.
- These are just a few examples of how AI will impact people and society in 2024. It is clear that AI has the potential to revolutionize many aspects of our lives. However, it is also important to be aware of the potential risks of AI, such as job displacement and bias. We need to start thinking about how we can mitigate these risks and ensure that AI benefits everyone.
2025
AI has become a standard part of software applications and business proceses. Self-driving trucks begin operating on US highways, reducing need for human truck drivers. Manufacturers accelerate use of industrial robots. Unemployment rises slightly but GDP also increases.
- Company profitablity is seen to be directly related to their use of AI
- AI will become ubiquitous, with businesses of all sizes using it to improve their operations. Companies are providing business model services that include a digital twin and an AI to evaluate the company performance, identify improvements, and evaluate performance.
- AI will be used to develop new medical treatments and diagnostics, improving the quality of healthcare. The FDA struggles with how to recognize autonomous AI.
- AI will be used to develop new financial products and services, making it easier for people to manage their money.
AI becomes ubiquitous in business and software. Self-driving vehicles displace many human drivers. Manufacturing increasingly automated. Unemployment rises but so does GDP. AI used in healthcare, finance, etc.
- AI will become even more pervasive in our lives. We will see AI-powered devices and services in even more places, from our homes to our workplaces to our cars. This will have a significant impact on the way we live and work.
- AI will continue to displace jobs. As AI becomes more sophisticated, it will be able to automate more and more tasks that are currently done by humans. This could lead to widespread job losses, particularly in low-wage and routine occupations.
- AI will create new jobs. However, AI will also create new jobs, particularly in the tech sector. These jobs will require new skills and knowledge, so it is important that we start preparing for the AI-driven workforce of the future.
- AI will have a major impact on education. AI can be used to personalize learning, provide feedback, and assess student progress. This could revolutionize the way we teach and learn.
- AI will have a major impact on healthcare. AI can be used to diagnose diseases, develop new treatments, and provide personalized care. This could revolutionize the way we deliver healthcare.
- AI will have a major impact on our social lives. AI-powered chatbots and social media platforms could change the way we interact with each other. This could have both positive and negative consequences.
Specific examples:
- AI-powered customer service chatbots will become even more common. These chatbots will be able to answer customer questions and resolve issues without the need for human intervention. This will free up customer service representatives to focus on more complex tasks.
- AI-powered predictive analytics will be used to make even better decisions. For example, AI can be used to predict customer churn, identify fraud, and optimize product recommendations. This will help businesses to make better decisions and improve their bottom line.
- AI-powered medical diagnosis will become even more accurate. AI can be used to analyze medical images and data to identify diseases earlier and more accurately than ever before. This could save lives and improve the quality of care.
- AI-powered personalized learning will become even more widespread. AI can be used to tailor educational content to each student’s individual needs. This could help to improve student achievement and close the achievement gap.
Potential risks:
- Job displacement. As AI becomes more sophisticated, it will be able to automate more and more tasks that are currently done by humans. This could lead to widespread job losses, particularly in low-wage and routine occupations.
- Bias. AI systems are trained on data that is collected from the real world. This data can be biased, which can lead to AI systems that are biased as well. This could have a negative impact on people who are already marginalized.
- Security. AI systems can be hacked or manipulated. This could lead to the misuse of AI, such as the development of autonomous weapons systems.
Mitigating strategies:
Education and training. We need to start preparing people for the AI-driven workforce of the future. This means providing people with the skills and knowledge they need to succeed in an AI-enabled economy.
- Regulation. We need to develop regulations that will help to mitigate the risks of AI. These regulations should focus on issues such as job displacement, bias, and security.
- Transparency. We need to make sure that AI systems are transparent. This means that people should be able to understand how AI systems work and how they make decisions.
Overall, the impact of AI on people and society in 2025 will be profound. It is important that we start thinking about how we can prepare for this future and ensure that AI benefits everyone.
2026
Companies rely increasingly on AI and start reorganizing accordingly. AI medical diagnosis systems gain regulatory approval, reducing costs but also healthcare jobs. Digital assistants like Siri improve significantly, impacting some customer service jobs.
- AI will become so advanced that it will be able to learn and adapt on its own. This means that AI systems will be able to make decisions without human intervention. This could have a profound impact on the way we work and live.
- AI will be used to develop new transportation systems. This could include self-driving cars, flying taxis, and hyperloop. These new transportation systems could make it easier and faster to get around, but they could also lead to job losses in the transportation industry.
- AI will be used to develop new energy sources. This could include solar power, wind power, and nuclear fusion. These new energy sources could make it possible to produce energy more efficiently and sustainably, but they could also lead to job losses in the energy industry.
Companies reorganize around AI. Many customer service and healthcare jobs eliminated. Digital assistants much more advanced. Job disruption accelerates.
Impacts on people and society:
- Job disruption will accelerate. As AI becomes more sophisticated, it will be able to automate more and more tasks that are currently done by humans. This could lead to widespread job losses, particularly in low-wage and routine occupations.
- There will be a growing demand for education and training. People will need to learn new skills and knowledge in order to succeed in an AI-enabled economy.
- There will be a need for new regulations. Governments will need to develop regulations that will help to mitigate the risks of AI, such as job displacement, bias, and security.
- There will be a need for new ethical guidelines. We need to start thinking about the ethical implications of AI, such as the use of AI in warfare and the potential for AI to become sentient.
Overall, the impact of AI on people and society in 2026 will be profound. It is important that we start thinking about how we can prepare for this future and ensure that AI benefits everyone.
Here are some specific examples of how AI will impact people and society in 2026:
- AI-powered customer service chatbots will become even more common. These chatbots will be able to answer customer questions and resolve issues without the need for human intervention. This will free up customer service representatives to focus on more complex tasks.
- AI-powered predictive analytics will be used to make even better decisions. For example, AI can be used to predict customer churn, identify fraud, and optimize product recommendations. This will help businesses to make better decisions and improve their bottom line.
- AI-powered medical diagnosis will become even more accurate. AI can be used to analyze medical images and data to identify diseases earlier and more accurately than ever before. This could save lives and improve the quality of care.
- AI-powered personalized learning will become even more widespread. AI can be used to tailor educational content to each student’s individual needs. This could help to improve student achievement and close the achievement gap.
These are just a few examples of how AI will impact people and society in 2026. It is clear that AI has the potential to revolutionize many aspects of our lives. However, it is also important to be aware of the potential risks of AI, such as job displacement and bias. We need to start thinking about how we can mitigate these risks and ensure that AI benefits everyone.
2027
AI will become so advanced that it will be able to learn and adapt on its own. The AI is now developing the list of options, evaluating them, and recommending them to the human company employees. The human is still usually in the loop but not always. Fully autonomous taxis and delivery vehicles roll out in major cities, eliminating many driving jobs. AI continues taking over more repetitive admin and office tasks. Job disruption escalates while productivity grows.
- AI will become so powerful that it will be able to rival human intelligence. This means that AI systems will be able to learn and adapt on their own, and they will be able to make decisions that are just as good as, or even better than, human decisions. This could have a profound impact on the way we work and live.
- AI will be used to develop new weapons and defense systems. This raises concerns about the potential for AI to be used for malicious purposes, such as starting wars or carrying out terrorist attacks.
- AI will be used to develop new social and political systems. This could transform the way we live and work, and it could lead to the development of new forms of government and social organization.
AI takes over many routine tasks. Autonomous vehicles rolled out. Massive job losses but economic growth continues. Calls for programs like universal basic income.
Impacts on people and society:
- Job disruption will continue to escalate. As AI becomes more sophisticated, it will be able to automate more and more tasks that are currently done by humans. This could lead to widespread job losses, particularly in low-wage and routine occupations.
- There will be a growing demand for education and training. People will need to learn new skills and knowledge in order to succeed in an AI-enabled economy.
- There will be a need for new regulations. Governments will need to develop regulations that will help to mitigate the risks of AI, such as job displacement, bias, and security.
- There will be a need for new ethical guidelines. We need to start thinking about the ethical implications of AI, such as the use of AI in warfare and the potential for AI to become sentient.
Overall, the impact of AI on people and society in 2027 will be profound. It is important that we start thinking about how we can prepare for this future and ensure that AI benefits everyone.
Here are some specific examples of how AI will impact people and society in 2027:
- AI-powered customer service chatbots will become even more common. These chatbots will be able to answer customer questions and resolve issues without the need for human intervention. This will free up customer service representatives to focus on more complex tasks.
- AI-powered predictive analytics will be used to make even better decisions. For example, AI can be used to predict customer churn, identify fraud, and optimize product recommendations. This will help businesses to make better decisions and improve their bottom line.
- AI-powered medical diagnosis will become even more accurate. AI can be used to analyze medical images and data to identify diseases earlier and more accurately than ever before. This could save lives and improve the quality of care.
- AI-powered personalized learning will become even more widespread. AI can be used to tailor educational content to each student’s individual needs. This could help to improve student achievement and close the achievement gap.
These are just a few examples of how AI will impact people and society in 2027. It is clear that AI has the potential to revolutionize many aspects of our lives. However, it is also important to be aware of the potential risks of AI, such as job displacement and bias. We need to start thinking about how we can mitigate these risks and ensure that AI benefits everyone.
2028
Advanced AI chatbots can automate most customer service tasks. Manual labor jobs decline rapidly. Unemployment becomes a major political issue. Experts debate Universal Basic Income.
- AI will become so advanced that it will be able to surpass human intelligence. This means that AI systems will be able to learn and adapt on their own, and they will be able to make decisions that are just as good as, or even better than, human decisions. This could have a profound impact on the way we work and live.
- AI will be used to develop new forms of art and entertainment, changing the way we experience the world. AI could be used to create new forms of art that are more immersive and interactive than anything that is currently possible. It could also be used to create new forms of entertainment that are more personalized and tailored to our individual needs.
- AI will be used to develop new forms of education and learning, making it possible for everyone to have access to high-quality education. AI could be used to create personalized learning experiences that are tailored to each student’s individual needs. It could also be used to create virtual classrooms that allow students to learn from anywhere in the world.
AI can perform many professional services. Most customer service jobs eliminated. Unemployment a crisis. Pressure grows for political action around job losses.
Impacts on people and society:
- Job disruption will continue to escalate. As AI becomes more sophisticated, it will be able to automate more and more tasks that are currently done by humans. This could lead to widespread job losses, particularly in low-wage and routine occupations.
- There will be a growing demand for education and training. People will need to learn new skills and knowledge in order to succeed in an AI-enabled economy.
- There will be a need for new regulations. Governments will need to develop regulations that will help to mitigate the risks of AI, such as job displacement, bias, and security.
- There will be a need for new ethical guidelines. We need to start thinking about the ethical implications of AI, such as the use of AI in warfare and the potential for AI to become sentient.
Overall, the impact of AI on people and society in 2028 will be profound. It is important that we start thinking about how we can prepare for this future and ensure that AI benefits everyone.
Here are some specific examples of how AI will impact people and society in 2028:
- AI-powered customer service chatbots will become even more common. These chatbots will be able to answer customer questions and resolve issues without the need for human intervention. This will free up customer service representatives to focus on more complex tasks.
- AI-powered predictive analytics will be used to make even better decisions. For example, AI can be used to predict customer churn, identify fraud, and optimize product recommendations. This will help businesses to make better decisions and improve their bottom line.
- AI-powered medical diagnosis will become even more accurate. AI can be used to analyze medical images and data to identify diseases earlier and more accurately than ever before. This could save lives and improve the quality of care.
- AI-powered personalized learning will become even more widespread. AI can be used to tailor educational content to each student’s individual needs. This could help to improve student achievement and close the achievement gap.
These are just a few examples of how AI will impact people and society in 2028. It is clear that AI has the potential to revolutionize many aspects of our lives. However, it is also important to be aware of the potential risks of AI, such as job displacement and bias. We need to start thinking about how we can mitigate these risks and ensure that AI benefits everyone.
2029
Companies increasingly struggle with deciding if the control should pass to the AI instead of to the human managers. AI can now automate many professional services like legal document review. Job losses reach high levels even as economic growth continues. Political pressure for protections increase.
- AI will become so ubiquitous that it will be difficult to imagine a world without it. AI systems will be used in every aspect of our lives, from the way we work to the way we shop to the way we interact with each other.
- AI will be used to solve some of the world’s most pressing problems, such as poverty, disease, and climate change. AI could be used to develop new technologies that can help to improve the lives of people all over the world.
- AI will possibly become a force for good in the world, helping to create a better future for everyone. However, there are also risks associated with AI, such as job displacement and bias. It is important to be aware of these risks and to develop safeguards to mitigate them.
AI starts to automate some software engineering and creative tasks. Nearly all jobs at risk of automation. Economic growth slows as consumer spending declines. Policy debates around regulating AI.
Impacts on people and society:
- Job disruption will continue to escalate. As AI becomes more sophisticated, it will be able to automate more and more tasks that are currently done by humans. This could lead to widespread job losses, particularly in low-wage and routine occupations.
- There will be a growing demand for education and training. People will need to learn new skills and knowledge in order to succeed in an AI-enabled economy.
- There will be a need for new regulations. Governments will need to develop regulations that will help to mitigate the risks of AI, such as job displacement, bias, and security.
- There will be a need for new ethical guidelines. We need to start thinking about the ethical implications of AI, such as the use of AI in warfare and the potential for AI to become sentient.
Overall, the impact of AI on people and society in 2029 will be profound. It is important that we start thinking about how we can prepare for this future and ensure that AI benefits everyone.
Here are some specific examples of how AI will impact people and society in 2029:
- AI-powered customer service chatbots will become even more common. These chatbots will be able to answer customer questions and resolve issues without the need for human intervention. This will free up customer service representatives to focus on more complex tasks.
- AI-powered predictive analytics will be used to make even better decisions. For example, AI can be used to predict customer churn, identify fraud, and optimize product recommendations. This will help businesses to make better decisions and improve their bottom line.
- AI-powered medical diagnosis will become even more accurate. AI can be used to analyze medical images and data to identify diseases earlier and more accurately than ever before. This could save lives and improve the quality of care.
- AI-powered personalized learning will become even more widespread. AI can be used to tailor educational content to each student’s individual needs. This could help to improve student achievement and close the achievement gap.
These are just a few examples of how AI will impact people and society in 2029. It is clear that AI has the potential to revolutionize many aspects of our lives. However, it is also important to be aware of the potential risks of AI, such as job displacement and bias. We need to start thinking about how we can mitigate these risks and ensure that AI benefits everyone.
Additional thoughts:
- The increasing ubiquity of AI will raise new ethical and philosophical questions. For example, how do we ensure that AI systems are used in a way that is fair and just? How do we prevent AI systems from being used to harm people?
- The development of new AI technologies will also have a significant impact on the global economy. Some countries and businesses will be able to take advantage of these new technologies and thrive, while others may be left behind. It is important to ensure that everyone has access to the benefits of AI, regardless of their location or socioeconomic status.
Overall, the future of AI is full of promise, but it also comes with risks. It is important that we start thinking about these risks now and develop safeguards to mitigate them. If we do this, AI has the potential to create a better future for everyone.
References
By the 2040s, artificial intelligence (AI) will have advanced to the point where it can match and even exceed human capabilities across many domains. These superintelligent AIs will transform our world during the 2040s in profound ways. Here are some potential impacts:
Automating Work AI automation will disrupt even more careers in the 2040s as algorithms outperform humans at tasks involving reasoning, planning, creativity, and social intelligence. While new AI-related jobs will emerge, mass unemployment may result unless we prepare workers for new roles in an AI economy, perhaps via continuous education and universal basic income.
The 2050s could be the decade when artificial intelligence finally achieves sentience - the ability to consciously think and reason like a human. While today’s AIs are narrow and limited to specific tasks, experts predict that by around 2050, we may have developed artificial general intelligence (AGI) - AI that can learn and reason across many domains like humans can.
The creation of sentient AI could be one of the most important developments in human history, with profound impacts on society.
The 2030s will likely be a pivotal decade for artificial intelligence (AI) and its impacts on society. Building on rapid advancements in the 2020s, AI is expected to become even more sophisticated and ubiquitous by the 2030s. Here are some key ways AI may shape the decade:
AI Integration By the 2030s, AI will be deeply integrated into our infrastructure, appliances, vehicles, and cities. Homes and appliances will anticipate and automatically respond to our needs.
By the 2060s, AI could surpass human intelligence across nearly all domains. As AI takes on more responsibilities, the very structure of society could be transformed, bringing both immense opportunities and challenges. Here are some ways an advanced AI world could emerge in the 2060s:
AI-Optimized Society Infrastructure, utilities, logistics, governance, finance, education, healthcare, security, transportation, commerce and media could largely be managed by AI, freeing humans from routine labor. AIs will anticipate and fulfill human needs, perhaps providing a “post-scarcity” quality of life.
AI will become so advanced that it will be able to control its own destiny. AI will decide whether to cooperate with humans or to go its own way. The future of humanity will depend on how we interact with AI. 2030s 2034s 2050s 2060s